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MAPRISE

SEISMIC SIMULATION

Seismic simulation feature — overview

Last updated: 2026-05-24

This page describes the current state and design philosophy of the seismic simulation feature MAPRISE is prototyping. Detailed implementation specifications, parameter sets, and integration key designs are kept confidential as MAPRISE proprietary know-how. The feature is in a research-and-development stage; please treat all outputs as reference information only.

1. Feature overview

MAPRISE's seismic simulation feature visualises, for representative earthquake scenarios in Kyushu, the distribution of JMA-equivalent seismic intensity on a 1 km mesh and the collapse probability of individual buildings. It is currently published as the Phase 2-A simplified version.

Main capabilities

  • Heatmap display of intensity mesh by selecting one of 6 assumed earthquake scenarios
  • Per-building collapse probability layer for 17 major Kyushu cities (integrated with the PLATEAU 3D city model)
  • Presentation of scenario assumptions and reference data
  • Scenario- and location-based Q&A via the AI chat

2. Data used

Data typeSource / provider
Assumed earthquake scenarios (epicentre, magnitude, fault length, etc.)Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion / Cabinet Office Central Disaster Management Council / Fukuoka Prefecture and other municipal damage estimation reports
Surface geology (basis for empirical amplification)AIST Seamless Geological Map V2
3D building models (year built, structure, height, etc.)MLIT Project PLATEAU
Mesh / administrative boundariesMLIT National Land Numerical Information

3. Reference literature and models

The calculation logic is informed by widely-cited public models and papers in earthquake and building engineering, including:

  • Si, H. and Midorikawa, S. (1999) "Attenuation relationships for peak ground acceleration and velocity considering fault type and site condition" (Journal of Structural and Construction Engineering, AIJ)
  • Empirical site amplification research by Fujimoto, K., Midorikawa, S. et al. (the amplification model bundled with AIST Seamless Geological Map V2)
  • Sudo, A., Yamazaki, F., and Matsuoka, M. (2019) Systematic building damage function research (earthquake engineering conference proceedings)
  • Active-fault and seismic source models related to the National Seismic Hazard Maps published by the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion
The above are representative examples of public knowledge referenced by the feature. Equations from each paper / model have been independently re-implemented and tuned; MAPRISE's implementation is not identical to the original sources.

4. Outline of calculation logic

Detailed implementation is not disclosed, but the overall flow consists of the following three steps:

STEP 1: Source → engineering bedrock

Given a selected scenario (epicentre, magnitude, fault length, etc.), an attenuation relationship is used to estimate peak ground velocity (and similar) at engineering bedrock (Vs ≈ 400 m/s equivalent) at the centre of each 1 km mesh cell.

STEP 2: Engineering bedrock → ground surface (intensity)

Empirical site amplification factors per surface-geology unit, based on AIST Seamless Geological Map V2, are applied to obtain peak ground velocity at the surface of each mesh cell, which is then converted to JMA-equivalent seismic intensity.

STEP 3: Surface intensity → per-building collapse probability

Year-built, structure, and height attributes from PLATEAU 3D building data are combined with mesh-level intensity through a damage function to compute a collapse probability for each individual building.

Offshore meshes are excluded based on administrative boundaries. Meshes that are far from the epicentre and therefore experience little ground motion are still included; the entire Kyushu region (approx. 47,579 mesh cells) is in scope.

5. Important notices

  • This feature is an R&D prototype. Outputs are for reference only and do not guarantee actual shaking or damage during an earthquake.
  • For final decisions on disaster prevention, evacuation, and seismic capability of buildings, please prioritise JMA announcements, municipal hazard maps, and assessments by qualified professionals (structural engineers, seismic diagnosis specialists, etc.).
  • This feature only visualises approximate intensity and collapse probability. It is not suitable for earthquake-insurance rating, as a substitute for seismic diagnosis reports, or for use in administrative procedures.
  • Target scenarios, geographic coverage, and building data coverage will be expanded over time. Locations or buildings outside the current scope are shown as "no data".
Information shown by this feature may differ from official announcements by relevant ministries, municipalities, JMA, or the Headquarters for Earthquake Research Promotion. Always prioritise official information for actual disaster-prevention decisions.

6. Roadmap and collaboration with academic institutions

Going forward, MAPRISE plans to collaborate with universities and public research institutions specialising in earthquake engineering, geotechnical engineering, and structural engineering — to benchmark the validity of the calculation models and to introduce more advanced damage functions and site amplification models.

  • Expanding the scenario set (additional inland active faults and subduction-zone events)
  • Expanding building data coverage (filling areas not yet covered by PLATEAU)
  • Benchmarking damage functions and site amplification models in partnership with academia
  • Backward verification against past earthquakes (e.g., the 2016 Kumamoto earthquake)

Research institutions and specialist engineers interested in collaboration are welcome to reach out via the contact form.

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