The seismic simulation (beta) now covers 6 assumed scenarios (up from 5), adding the Beppu-Haneyama fault zone in Oita. Major intraplate and subduction-type earthquakes across Kyushu are now jointly covered.
The assumed seismic scenarios for MAPRISE's seismic simulation (beta) have been expanded from 5 to 6 (published on 2026-05-22).
The newly added 6th scenario
| # | Scenario | M | Source type | Primary impact area |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kego fault, southeast section | 7.2 | Intraplate active fault | Fukuoka |
| 2 | Futagawa–Hinagu fault, linked rupture | 8.0 | Intraplate active fault | Kumamoto |
| 3 | Nankai Trough megathrust | 9.1 | Subduction | All Kyushu |
| 4 | Hyuga-nada earthquake | 7.6 | Subduction | Miyazaki |
| 5 | Nishiyama fault, linked rupture | 7.6 | Intraplate active fault | Fukuoka |
| 6 (NEW) | Beppu–Haneyama fault zone (Yufuin-linked) | 7.5 | Intraplate active fault | Oita |
The set now provides balanced coverage of the principal intraplate active faults running across Kyushu's 7 prefectures, alongside the Pacific-side subduction-type megathrust scenarios.
What this expansion exposes
- Building damage projections for Oita — Now visualise the per-building collapse probability for major buildings in Oita (including central Beppu and the Yufuin onsen area) under a linked Beppu–Haneyama rupture.
- Coverage in 17 major cities with 3D city models — All buildings across these cities now have pre-computed collapse probabilities under each of the 6 scenarios.
- 1 km mesh JMA seismic intensity distribution — Intensity distribution viewable across the entire Kyushu region.
Computational approach (high level)
The detailed implementation is kept confidential, but the broad outline converts source → ground surface → per-building collapse probability in three stages: distance-attenuation estimation from the source model to engineering bedrock motion, conversion to ground-surface intensity accounting for site amplification by surface geology, and combination of each building's structure / year built / height attributes with a damage function to output collapse probability.
The specific research references, coefficient selections, and supplementation algorithms used in each stage are part of the feature's competitive value and are not disclosed.
Important caveats
This feature is a beta research-and-development prototype. Outputs are reference information only and do not guarantee actual ground motion or damage during an earthquake. For disaster preparedness, evacuation, and structural-integrity decisions, please prioritise official information from JMA, municipal hazard maps, and qualified specialists.
For detailed specifications, see Seismic Simulation Feature Overview. For the accuracy work that followed, see improving collapse-probability scoring accuracy; for AI analysis of these scenarios building by building, see the PLATEAU Buildings layer.
Tags: #release #seismic #simulation #beta
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📝 想定地震シナリオを 6 つに拡充しました — 別府–万年山(大分由布院連動)を追加 地震シミュレーション機能(β)の想定シナリオを 5 つから 6 つに拡張しました。別府–万年山断層帯(大分由布院連動)を追加し、九州全域の主要活断層・海溝型地震をカバーします。 https://maprise.jp/ja/blog/six-seismic-scenarios/ #リリース #地震
🆕 新しいブログ記事を公開しました。 《想定地震シナリオを 6 つに拡充しました — 別府–万年山(大分由布院連動)を追加》 地震シミュレーション機能(β)の想定シナリオを 5 つから 6 つに拡張しました。別府–万年山断層帯(大分由布院連動)を追加し、九州全域の主要活断層・海溝型地震をカバーします。 👉 詳しくはこちら: https://maprise.jp/ja/blog/six-seismic-scenarios/
📝 Expanded the seismic simulation to 6 scenarios — Beppu-Haneyama added The seismic simulation (beta) now covers 6 assumed scenarios (up from 5), adding the Beppu-Haneyama fault zone in Oita. Major intraplate and subduction-type eart… https://maprise.jp/en/blog/six-seismic-scenarios/ #release #seismic
🆕 New on the MAPRISE blog. 《Expanded the seismic simulation to 6 scenarios — Beppu-Haneyama added》 The seismic simulation (beta) now covers 6 assumed scenarios (up from 5), adding the Beppu-Haneyama fault zone in Oita. Major intraplate and subduction-type earthquakes across Kyushu are now jointly covered. 👉 Read the full post: https://maprise.jp/en/blog/six-seismic-scenarios/ #release #seismic #simulation #beta